WWIII?

2 10 2016

World War III is already underway and escalating though so far in many critical ways still quite limited.   Though this could result in nuclear armageddon, that is less likely than other novel forms of world warfare in what is not only the advanced nuclear age but also the globalized and internet/cyber age.    A very smart friend in college from China has just asked me, when told about what’s happening and yesterday’s shocking threats from Moscow:  “What?  Russia is not in position to threaten the U.S., is it?”

Let’s quickly war game this out this morning.  Here in brief summary is what the Russians could do if the Americans follow up with their threats and refuse to back down in the dastardly war they and their allies started in Syria years ago but have not been able to end as they expected:

***  Escalate arms to Syria and use more Russian attack planes and ground artillery.  Unless the U.S. (which also means the Saudis and Israelis) is prepared to lose their geo-strategic war on Syria this would force the U.S. to do things it has refrained from and knows could badly backfire.

The Americans then could:

* Supply manpads to the Islamic mercenary “good guy moderates” to shoot down Syrian and Russian planes, but this would likely initially result in even further Russian escalation, and then these shoulder fired missiles could be used also to take down US or allied planes, even civilian airliners.

* Create a new no-fly zone, but under today’s circumstances this would be both difficult and risky with the Russians able to take down American planes tit for tat, thus forcing direct U.S. and NATO attack on Russian weapons and forces.

* Directly intervene with American and NATO troops.   This would be politically very dangerous especially at this time for Obama/Clinton and will not be done as long as Clinton appears to be winning.   Even after her election it would be very risky politically and further push the world to nightmare de jure rather than limited de facto World War.

Additionally, if further pressed and threatened, and especially if the US and NATO also escalate in Ukraine and Eastern Eruope and endanger Russia about a possible attack from the East on their homeland, the Russians could also:

***  Further special military attacks such as the one that killed top intelligence officials from many countries including Saudis, Israelis, Qataris, and Turks — in addition to US. UK and French —  holding a secret coordination meeting near Aleppo.   If classified reports are true more than 30 senior intelligence officials were killed in what was thought to be a secret mountain war room by a precision Russian attack that took place shortly after the Americans made their first attack against Syrian forces, claiming it was a “mistake”.   But the Americans and allies have been unable to protest publicly as they cannot even admit such a war center and multi-national war council was even taking place in Syria.

*** Use cyber weapons against the Americans — everything from “leaked” emails about American politics to infecting American economic institutions and critical infrastructure.  It appears they may have already sent warnings by demonstrating their capabilities.

*** Leak info that the American “deep state” was really behind 9/11, and whether true or not many will believe and further question their own leaders and all that has been done since.

*** Use RT and other new media  to further “leak” damning secrets about U.S.
policies around the world, past and present, as well as lots of dirt and muck about American politicians, both personal and institutional.

There’s really much more as this is just a quick war gaming this morning with my first larger than usual cup of coffee!

 

 

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