TAIWAN!

China will have to react more forcefully against U.S. provocations about Taiwan. These reactions will be measured and escalating, but short of military action unless the U.S. provocations are deemed too great — which might even be the American goal.

The elevation of Taiwan by the U.S. in the Trump years to de facto independence, now pushed even further by Biden, will not go boldly unchallenged by China. U.S. political visits, and even more so U.S. military trainers and escalating arms sales to Taiwan, have already crossed China’s red lines as well as abrogated basic U.S. “one-China” commitments.

For the time being China is using escalating public and private “diplomacy” and public relations, though with ongoing and quite justified counter-military build-up. This includes at the moment economically and diplomatically punishing lesser nations who take any steps to even speak about Taiwan as independent from China.

For now China will probably concentrate on putting on quite a show with the Winter Olympics just 5 weeks away. If the Americans pursue a “diplomatic boycott” so be it, that’s not going to matter very much. But China is surely taking note of all the American steps and when the Olympics end on February 20th China is likely to more forcefully match the U.S. statement by statement, gesture by gesture, action by action, military maneuver by military maneuver.

After the Olympics, a major symbolic action I have already previously suggested might take place — China recalling it’s Pandas from the Washington National Zoo. This would actually be quite a dramatic yet obviously non-military step that they may be contemplating. It would be fitting. The Pandas were sent in 1972 as a gesture of friendship between China and the U.S. They quickly became a fixture, a landmark, in the American capital. Calling them home now for the first time since 1972 would be a major symbol that the Americans had violated the basic “One-China” policy and taken other measures against China so that the friendship is no longer.